Trump’s NATO Test Begins: will ankara summit expose cracks in alliance unity?

The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara is shaping up to be one of the most critical gatherings for the Western alliance in recent years, with former US President Donald Trump expected to once again challenge the unity of the 32-member bloc.

Set to begin on July 7, the summit comes at a time when the alliance is navigating multiple global crises from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly after the recent Iran conflict.

At the centre of the diplomatic balancing act is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has intensified efforts to keep Trump aligned with the alliance. In a recent appearance, Rutte openly praised Trump’s role in pushing European allies to boost military budgets, even showcasing figures under the headline “The Trump Trillion” a reference to the reported $1.2 trillion increase in defense spending by European members and Canada since 2017.

The move highlights NATO’s current strategy: keep Trump engaged by focusing on economics, defense production and burden-sharing.

Trump has repeatedly criticized European nations for relying too heavily on the United States for security while contributing less themselves. Those concerns have resurfaced ahead of Ankara, with Washington reviewing its troop deployments and military posture across Europe.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently warned that allies unwilling to “step up” could face consequences, a statement that reportedly unsettled several European defense ministers.

Among those raising concerns was German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who stressed the need for a coordinated roadmap to avoid military capability gaps if US troop levels are reduced.

For European leaders, the summit is not only about defense budgets but also about preserving the alliance’s political credibility.

Security analysts say the biggest risk is not a lack of money but public division. Experts warn that if Trump openly criticizes allies during the summit or questions their commitment, it could weaken NATO’s deterrence at a time when Vladimir Putin continues to project military pressure across Europe.

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Another major focus in Ankara will be support for Ukraine. Reports suggest NATO’s European members and Canada are expected to pledge around €70 billion in military aid for Ukraine over this year and next, reinforcing Kyiv’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression.

At the same time, NATO is preparing to launch what Rutte has called a “defense industrial revolution”, with billions of dollars in contracts aimed at expanding weapons production and strengthening supply chains.

European leaders hope this economic push will appeal to Trump by underlining the commercial benefits of NATO for American defense industries.
There is cautious optimism after Trump’s relatively cooperative tone at the recent G7 Summit, where he supported stronger measures against Russia, including potential sanctions on oil exports and banking operations.

Still, all eyes in Ankara will be on one question: Can NATO maintain its unity under Trump’s unpredictable influence?

The summit’s final declaration is expected to reaffirm Article 5, NATO’s core principle that an attack on one ally is an attack on all a symbolic but crucial message at a time when global security is increasingly fragile.

For NATO, the real battle in Ankara may not be military. It may be political.