Stock Market Today: Sensex, Nifty Set to End 5-Day Losing Streak? 3 Big Triggers Investors Are Watching

After five consecutive sessions of losses, India’s stock market could finally get some breathing room on Monday. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open higher, helped by a sharp fall in crude oil prices and signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Early signals from the GIFT Nifty suggested a positive start to trading. Around 8 am, GIFT Nifty futures were trading near 23,974.50, indicating that the Nifty 50 could open above its previous close of 23,767.45.

The expected recovery comes after a difficult week for Dalal Street. The Sensex fell around 2.7% over the previous five sessions, while the Nifty 50 declined approximately 2.3%. Rising crude oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding bank earnings had weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Now, three key factors could determine whether Monday’s expected rebound turns into something bigger—or remains a short-lived relief rally.

1. Crude Oil Prices Fall Sharply

The biggest positive trigger for Indian equities is the sudden cooling in crude oil prices.

Brent crude fell nearly 4% to around $93.08 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined more than 4% to approximately $85.60.

The decline followed indications that hostilities between the United States and Iran could ease, raising hopes that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may not escalate further.

For India, cheaper crude is particularly important. The country relies heavily on imported oil, meaning a sustained decline in international crude prices can help reduce the import bill and ease pressure on inflation.

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Lower oil prices can also improve the outlook for corporate earnings by reducing input and transportation costs across several industries.

The fall in crude could additionally provide some support to the Indian rupee, which faced pressure last week when Brent crude briefly moved above the $100-per-barrel mark.

2. FII Selling Remains a Concern

While global cues may turn more supportive, foreign investor activity remains an important risk factor.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell Indian equities on Friday, withdrawing ₹3,892.77 crore from the cash market.

However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided a strong counterbalance, purchasing shares worth ₹5,453.55 crore.

This domestic buying has helped absorb some of the pressure created by persistent foreign outflows and has emerged as an important support for the Indian market during periods of global uncertainty.

FII activity in the derivatives market was also mixed. Foreign investors bought index options worth ₹7,104.61 crore and stock futures worth ₹2,115.55 crore, while selling index futures worth ₹1,201.59 crore and stock options worth ₹1,433.01 crore.

Investors will therefore be watching closely to see whether foreign selling continues or whether improving global sentiment encourages overseas investors to return to Indian equities.

3. Rupee Could Get Some Relief

The decline in crude oil prices could also offer some support to the Indian currency.

The rupee was expected to open around the 96.14-96.18 range against the US dollar, compared with Friday’s close of 96.5625.

Lower oil prices can reduce India’s demand for dollars to pay for crude imports, potentially easing pressure on the rupee. Improving foreign currency inflows, along with recent measures from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), could also play a role.

However, currency traders will remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, global bond yields and the direction of foreign portfolio flows.

Stocks to Watch Today

Apart from global cues, several companies could remain in focus following their latest earnings announcements.

Tata Consumer Products could attract attention after reporting better-than-expected June-quarter results. The company has also indicated that it may consider price increases for select products if input costs remain volatile.

SBI Cards and Payment Services may also be watched after reporting improved quarterly profitability, supported by better asset quality.

Meanwhile, Lodha Developers reported higher quarterly profit, while Bank of Baroda recorded a decline in profit.

These earnings updates could lead to stock-specific movements even as the broader market reacts to global developments.

Will Sensex and Nifty Finally Break the Losing Streak?

The sharp fall in crude oil prices has given Indian investors a reason to breathe easier after a bruising week. If geopolitical tensions continue to cool and oil prices remain under pressure, the market could see further improvement in sentiment.

However, investors should not assume that one positive opening automatically signals the end of market volatility. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, while corporate earnings, interest rate expectations and foreign investor flows will continue to influence Dalal Street.

For now, the market appears poised for a stronger opening. The bigger question is whether Sensex and Nifty can hold on to those gains through the trading session.

Monday’s session could offer the first real test of whether the five-day sell-off was merely a correction—or the beginning of a more prolonged phase of uncertainty.