India may face fresh Russian oil squeeze as Trump aide hints at ending waiver… “Decision rests with President”

India’s massive dependence on discounted Russian crude oil could come under renewed scrutiny, after signals from the United States Trump administration suggested that existing waivers allowing such imports may not continue indefinitely.

Speaking during a visit to Bahrain, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the option of ending waivers linked to Russian oil imports remains open, though the final decision will rest with President Donald Trump.

Rubio noted that any decision would depend heavily on global crude oil price trends and broader market stability. With oil prices recently easing from earlier highs, Washington may have more flexibility to tighten restrictions without triggering a global supply shock.

India’s Russian Oil Imports at Record Levels

India has significantly increased its reliance on discounted Russian crude since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, taking advantage of lower prices and shifting global supply chains.

According to preliminary data from vessel-tracking firm Kpler, India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to hit record levels in June, averaging around 2.6 million barrels per day. This accounts for more than 53% of India’s total crude imports during the period highlighting the scale of dependence.

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Energy analysts note that Russian crude has become a key pillar of India’s refining strategy, helping domestic refiners manage costs amid volatile global energy markets.

US Position: Balancing Sanctions and Stability

The Trump administration has previously indicated that sanctions and waiver decisions would be carefully calibrated to avoid sharp spikes in global oil prices. However, the recent softening in crude markets could reduce those concerns, opening the door for stricter enforcement.

While no formal policy change has been announced, Rubio’s remarks suggest that Washington is actively reassessing its stance on Russian energy trade flows, particularly as global supply conditions improve.

Broader Diplomatic Signals from Washington

In the same briefing, Rubio also spoke about US diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, stating that progress is being made in reducing tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

He said both sides were close to a “commitment of intent” under US-mediated talks aimed at easing border hostilities, particularly in the context of ongoing regional instability involving the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

Rubio further added that leaders from the Gulf region had expressed serious concerns during his recent diplomatic tour, underscoring the importance of maintaining regional stability while negotiations with Iran continue.